Predicting Nepal’s politics is like gypsies gazing the crystal balls. You do not know the shape of things to come tomorrow. If there is anything predictable about Nepali politics then it is unpredictability.
There are patterns or tell-tale signs revealing something to unfold in the days to come. Every decade or so, we are having a major political upheaval. And the months of March-April-May are propitious months for launching street rallies, agitations and demonstrations.
There is also wide spread public disenchantment with government’s lackluster performance and leadership. The external environment too is fluid. Then the question invariable asked is: Are we poised for another round of political upheaval?
Let us take some risks by predicting the unpredictable.
Rajabadi street demonstrations will fizzled out
File
There is a greater chance of rajabadi (Royalist) movement fizzling out, not because there is a serious discord within the camp or the government taking repressive measures. There are number of other factors.
First, the 28 March violence at Tin Kune, together with its field commander Durga Prasai absconding at large, has tarnished the image of former king Gyanendra. Prasai will never be booked in, he will be left at large.
Politically, it is more palatable to do so than trying to hunt him down. Gyanendra Shah will have to think twice before calling for another round of public support. We will know about the intentions from the message that he will deliver on the eve of Nepali New Year 2082 BS (14 April).
Second, the country is already occupied with several other demonstrations (teachers’ agitation, street demo against loan sharks, demo in favour of Kul Man, medicos strike, People’s Front is waging demo against federalism etc) and these demos will crowd out rajabadi rallies.
To this one need to add Newas busy celebrating never-ending festivals and feasts inside the Kathmandu Valley. Third, republican camp is launching counter measures to subdue or neutralise rajabadi movement. Recent development included, Terai-Madhes based political parties forming a Federal Democratic Front as a countervailing measure against attacks on FDR Nepal.
PM Oli will resign earlier than what he scheduled
File
PM Oli has, repetitively, informed us that he will submit his resignation, one week ahead of his schedule, that is, exactly sixteen months from now on. The unfolding of external and internal events give a tell-tale sign that he will be forced to resign sooner, not latter.
With PM Modi not attending Sagarmatha Dialogue, scheduled May and uncertainty in his official visit to India, PM Oli’s BIMSTEC bilateral talk with PM Modi in Bangkok may not be a failure; but it does not sound success either.
Moreover, unlike in the past, PM Oli has failed to generate any positive vibe. He is now taken as a butt of public criticism. With lackluster performance, possible fissures and cracks within the coalition; and, possibly, reasoning failing health, he may quit earlier and handover power to Deuba. This time-buying strategy will help to contain public dissatisfaction and keep the opposition at the bay.
Deuba may declare early poll 2084 BS
There is constitutional hitch in declaring early polls before the completion of five year tenure. Possibly, after consultation with with other major political parties, Deuba may declare early elections.
Given the fact that major political parties are already in a mood to go for elections, remember Mission 84 agenda, it is fair to predict the country having early polls. This could be somewhere in 2083. Some political parties are already out into the streets as if elections are near around the corner.
RSP will split
With its ambitious president Rabi Lamichhane behind the bars, RSP will, eventually, split into two camps. The split will be in line with rajabadis vs. republican camps. In the political rumour market, RSP is presumed as “bhai congress” or little bro of Nepali Congress. This accusation is more to do with two renegade leaders of RSP than an affiliation with Nepali Congress.
RSP members are disillusioned by its leadership crisis and their popularity sinking fast. This is best exemplified by low turnout of the supporters during Chitawan rally held on April 5, immediately, after the arrest of Lamichhane in Kathmandu. Had it not been its dwindling popularity, one would expect, amid an attack on its leadership, a massive gathering. Moreover, Chitawan district is also the home constituency of Lamichhane from where he got elected twice with a stunning majority.
KMC Mayor will resign before his tenure
We will see more interesting political drama unfolding inside KMC. The KMC will see a major political havoc with the increased tussle between its staff members and party affiliated ward chairpersons at one side and near isolated Mayor at the other. This hiatus cannot go long. In order to gain political milage, there is greater chance of him coming with an abrupt resignation ahead of his tenure; pulling off the political parties off guarded.
One can expect similar feat with the Mayor of Dharan, Harka Sampang Rai. They will soon realise that having a milage in social media is one thing but political complexities in managing municipal governance a different thing.
