Kathmandu, December 7
It has been over one-and-a-half years since Nepal was rattled by a 7.8 magnitude quake, killing over 9,000 and leaving thousands of people without a home.
In Kathmandu, which was not at the epicentre of the quake, buildings crumbled, historic temples fell, and medical services stretched to their limit. A new research conducted by scientists from Nevada in the US shows that a more powerful earthquake, with its epicentre near Kathmandu, is not only possible, it is highly likely in the near future. Heading the team was Steve Wesnousky, geophysics professor and director of the Center for Neotectonic Studies, who has been studying the Himalayan Frontal Fault for 20 years.
Here we look at three reasons why Kathmandu is at risk of a more powerful earthquake, according to Wesnousky:
1.
Comparison with historical records
“We conducted a number of paleo-earthquake studies in the vicinity of Kathmandu in the past year, digging trenches and studying soils and fault lines looking back over the past 2,000 years,” said Wesnousky. “Coupled with historical records, it’s apparent the faults are capable of earthquakes far greater than the Gorkha earthquake.”
2.
Quake may be deep, at least 200km deep
“The sum of our observations suggest that this section of the Himalayan Frontal Thrust fault, extending about 200 kilometers from Triveni to Bagmati, may rupture simultaneously, and the next great earthquake near Kathmandu may rupture an area significantly greater than in the Gorkha earthquake.”
3.
Kathmandu’s fault didn’t rupture during the Gorkha quake
“The scenario we developed hypothesises that the next great earthquake may begin to the west near Triveni (located at the southeast of the valley) and propagate into the section of fault beneath Kathmandu that did not rupture during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake,” Wesnousky said. “The length of such a rupture would be about 200 kilometers or greater and capable of producing a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake. This scenario is not unique.”
